Didn't watch the NBA Draft? Don't worry, Statbuster is here to give you the sardonic summary of what you have to look forward to this upcoming October..or whenever the lockout is over.

Kyrie Irving: The Timberwolves Award Of Point Guard Hoarding goes to the Cavs, who will potentially have $23M of cap space tied up between Erving, Baron Davis, and Ramon Sessions. On the bright side, one thing to note is that Irving was a rare member of the 50/40/90 club at Duke. Albeit he only played 11 games in college, the fact that he didn't take his freshman lumps is quite an accomplishment. Scouts are quick to point out that Erving isn't as explosive as a Derrick Rose or a John Wall, but if he continues to shoot anywhere near that rate, it won't matter. Cavaliers expect: Deron Williams. Statbuster expects: A low-budget Chris Paul.

Fun Fact: Cleveland aquired the #1 pick, pre-lottery, from the Clippers in the Baron Davis trade. Which means, the Clips turned the pick and Baron Davis into Mo Williams and Jamario Moon. And that's what makes the Clippers "The Clippers" my friend.

Derrick Williams: The Wolves focus shifts from point guards to stockpiling power forwards that live on the perimeter. It's worth noting that Williams shot a NBA Jam-like 56.8% on 3s as a sophomore. He's a shade undersized for a PF and doesn't block shots. But, if the trio of Kevin Love, Michael Beasley and Williams can find a way to play passable defense..no, never mind. Wolves expect: Antawn Jamison. Statbuster expects: Plenty of 100-point nights for teams visiting the Target Center.

Enes Kanter: A 6'11" center that has an advanced perimeter game, complete with 3-point range and the ability to put the ball on the floor. He's a bit unproven; he was ruled ineligible to play at Kentucky and basically sat at home the entire season. But scouts stopped short of calling him a project, which is good news for everyone. Kanter also noted that he wants to become a professional wrestler once his NBA days are over. A retired basketball player pretending to beat up people? Sorry, that's been done already. Jazz expects: Mehmet Okur 2.0. Statbuster expects: Vlade Divac.

Tristan Thompson: Cleveland lands an unselfish defender-type PF with Thompson. He's a bit undersized and lacks strength, but he'll partially make up for it with his wingspan (7'1") and shot blocking (2.4 per). Plus he's Canadian, so he'll politely call hecklers "sir" when he misses his free throws (48%). Cavaliers expect: Another Anderson Varejao. Statbuster expects: Tyrus Thomas.

Jonas Valanciunas: A Lithuanian center that Toronto may stash away in Europe for another year. Decent inside game and plays physical, but he will be eaten alive unless he puts on some muscle. Hopefully he'll also spend the next year working on his interview skills. Raptors expect: Poor man's Chris Bosh. Statbuster expects: Zan Tabak.

Jan Vesely: Vesely breaks the mold from most Euros in that he has NBA-level athleticism and thrives in an open-court game. But of course, the ESPN guys were too busy marveling at Vesely's re-enactment of V-Day than anything basketball-related. Wizards expect: Andrei Kirilenko. Statbuster expects: Maurice Evans to be mercifully extracted from the Wizard's rotation.

Bismack Biyombo: The scouts has been comparing Biyombo to Ben Wallace, which is a insult to Ben Wallace. Biyombo will play hard, but even against lesser competiton he fouls and turns the ball over at an incredible rate. In the ACB he averaged nearly as many fouls (2/gm) as field goals (2.3/gm) and had a blistering 25% turnover ratio. So maybe, someday, he will be as proficient as scorer as Ben Wallace. Until then, Charlotte will be going 4-on-5 on offense. Or maybe 4-on-6. Bobcats expect: Ben Wallace. Statbuster expects: A shorter DeSagana Diop.

Brandon Knight: Knight is a combo guard that can both shoot and defend, and that alone should be enough to keep him in the league for the next 10 years. Knight could find a way into the rotation right away, especially if Rodney Stuckey is moved this summer, which is entirely possible. Pistons expect: Chauncey Billups. Statbuster expects: Jason Terry.

Kemba Walker: A lightning quick shoot-first PG that will fit nicely in that spot on the bench behind D.J. Augustin. A lack of NBA 3-point range (33% as a senior) and playmaking skills (1.84 pure point rating) will relegate him to backup status early on. Bobcats expect: Rod Strickland. Statbuster expects: Antonio Daniels.

Jimmer Fredette: How can a player lead the nation in scoring, but still be so unproven? At 6'2" he likely won't be able to play more than spot minutes at the 2. So the majority of his minutes will come at PG, where he has been consistently underwhelming as a distributor (3.7 Asts/gm). So he will have to score by the boatload to justify playing time. But he played in the marshmallowy Mountain West Conference, so his scoring was padded by beating up on schools like Texas Christian and Wyoming. Too many questions to draft comfortably. Kings expect: Mark Price. Statbuster expects: Tony Delk.

The Steal Of The Draft: Jordan Hamilton, who was projected by some scouts to go as high as #14, nearly slipped into the 2nd round and landed with Dallas at #26. Minutes will be hard to come by as he'll be behind Shawn Marion, as well as Peja Stojakovic and Caron Butler until their annual mid-season injuries. (Edit: Hamilton was dealt to Denver shortly afterwards. Talented player, but the Nugs are already stockpiled at the 3 with Wilson Chandler and Gallinari. He will compete with Gary Forbes what few minutes are left as a backup 3. That should be awesome.)

How did the mock drafts do?: As in previous years, there's a lot of focus on scouts trying to forecast the draft results. And, as in previous years, the forecasts are about as reliable as asking your dog.

#1 - Kyrie Irving - Got it right? 12/12.
#2 - Derrick Williams - 11/12
#3 - Enes Kanter - 9/12
#4 - Tristan Thompson - 1/12
#5 - Jonas Valanciunas - 0/12
#6 - Jan Vesely - 8/12
#7 - Bismack Biyombo - 1/12
#8 - Brandon Knight - 0/12
#9 - Kemba Walker - 2/12
#10 - Jimmer Fredette - 2/12

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25 Comments:
Blogger Brandon said...
1. The MWC had three teams selected for March Madness.

2. SDSU made it to the Elite 8.

3. Jimmer scored 26 against Utah State (another tourney team), 33 against Arizona in a win (Final 4 team), 25 against UCLA, 39 against UNLV, 43 against SDSU, 29 against UNLV (again), 25 against SDSU, 30 against SDSU, 34 against Gonzaga and 32 against Florida.

He scored consistently against great NCAA teams. If anything, he stepped up his game against better competition.

4. He's a better passer than you think he is. BYU was woefully bereft of scoring options, and many a wide-open shot created by Jimmer was bricked last season. That said, he definitely ball-hogged it a lot. I'm not sure that's an option when he's playing next to Tyreke.

Anyway, I'm not saying he'll be an All-Star in the NBA, but your analysis seems to be lacking in research.

Anonymous The Other Chris said...
Can we talk about the epic fail that was the Kings part of the Charlotte/Milwaukee/Sacramento trade? The Kings took on *more* money and a longer commitment, to acquire a player who arguably played *worse* than the one they gave up the past couple of seasons, in order to move *down* in the draft so that they could take.. Jimmer Freddette?

What. The. Fuck.

I mean, they're not even Utah. Utah at least has plausible business reasons for drafting the Jimmer. Fucking, Sacramento? I'm no demographic expert, but last time I checked central California is no hot bed of Mormonism.

Also, congratulations to Tristan Thompson for rocketing up the draft board to #4, thereby becoming the highest ever Canadian (?) selected. We're pulling for you down here eh?

Anonymous spinetingler said...
Danny Ainge, UDQM: "He[has}good length. I think he fits a lot of parts that we need."

Blogger Brandon said...
I'm no demographic expert, but last time I checked central California is no hot bed of Mormonism.

No, you aren't. California has the second highest number of Mormons in the U.S. outside of Utah. There's a Mormon temple in Sacramento, and one in Fresno.

http://pewforum.org/Christian/Mormon/A-Portrait-of-Mormons-in-the-US.aspx#1

But really, what's Jimmer's religion have to do with anything? He was the NPOY, led the NCAA in scoring, and made it to the Sweet 16. In a weak draft, what's wrong with taking a flyer on someone who has just as much risk associated with him as anyone else after the second pick?

Blogger LotharBot said...
> what's Jimmer's religion have to do with anything?

Since you live (or lived) in Idaho Falls and have a degree from BYU-Idaho I'd expect you to hear the same things about Jimmer as I do living in Brigham City, Utah. Drafting the Jimmer would make huge economic sense for the Jazz even if he struggles at the NBA level. People out here have Jimmer Fever, and it's not all because of his basketball abilities. Jimmer would sell season tickets no matter how he pans out. So a Jazz pick would've made some basketball sense and a ton of economic sense.

Wile there are a lot of Mormons in California, they're not a particularly high *concentration* (there are a lot of non-Mormons in Cali too! 13% of US Mormons live there; 11% of the US population does.) So the "fan favorite" economic factor isn't really working for the Kings. Which means for them, it had to be a basketball-only decision -- and that makes it strange, because they traded down and took on worse contracts.

Jimmer at 12 to Utah was a no-brainer of a pick. Sacramento trading down and taking on worse contracts for him was bizarre. Trading down for him and getting some other good assets, sure, but trading down and taking worse assets? I can't explain it.

Blogger Paul said...
Mark Jones interviewing Jan Vesley.

>Mark Jones: Tell us more about the european Blake Griffin as they call you.

>Jan Vesley: hmmm... I don't know, I think Blake Griffing is the American Jan Vesley

Anonymous The Other Chris said...
Well then, I stand corrected.

But really, what's Jimmer's religion have to do with anything?

Business. Business. Business.

The Mormon community has a raging, Beiber-esque man-crush on the Jimmer. The rest of us remain entirely unconvinced. Adam Morrison torched the NCAA too; look how that turned out. JJ Reddick? Taller, stronger, and it took him years to earn his NBA stripes.

In a weak draft, what's wrong with taking a flyer

Nothing wrong with it whatsoever. But, part of that flyer might not be entirely basketball related. It's a business. Basketball teams do things to sell tickets. This is one possible such thing.

Blogger Wormboy said...
@ Brandon: statistics fail. What is that you say? The most populous state in the union has a lot of mormons?

Anonymous kazam92 said...
So....we really aren't gonna talk about Metta World Peace?

Blogger Brandon said...
Agreed that number of people buying a Jimmer jersey in Utah is higher than the number sold in California. Not to mention ticket sales, advertising, etc. etc. The business side of it is something I had not considered.

But after the initial furor wears out, it comes down to how well he plays, whether in Utah or Sacramento. If he sits on the bench for a couple years, the Jimmermania dies in Utah. If he becomes a solid scorer this season, the Kings fans love him as much as Jazz fans would have.

Anonymous kono said...
Mark Jones: Tell us more about the european Blake Griffin as they call you.

Jan Vesley: hmmm... I don't know, I think Blake Griffin is the American Jan Vesley


This calls for a DUNK OFF!!!

Anonymous Czernobog said...
I think Griffin will go off for 40 and 20 the next time they meet the wizards.

And I think Statbuster is selling Divac a little short.

Anonymous Koggz said...
@kazam92:

Metta World Peace! Thank you. His name change is such a blessing to me, but it's probably only because when some buddies and I were playing pickup yesterday we kept doing Metta Bicep Kisses after even the most mundane shots and yelling, "World Peace!!" in each other's faces after forcing steals and turnovers.

Nothing like having someone change their name into a nice, but impossible, dream to boil pickup basketball blood.

@kono:

If there's going to be car jumping they better upgrade the dunk by using at least a Kia Soul over the roof, not the hood. Maybe have the passer dressed up in one of those hamster costumes. Or more tigers for Blake Griffin, whatevs.

Anonymous The Number 27 said...
Kanter didn't just sit at home.. he practiced all season with a final four team, against a second round draft pick.

Anonymous sixtyeight said...
A question for you american guys (I'm completely serious here): why are you so focused on Vesely's kiss? Is that weird/interesting? I mean, every blog, paper, tv, tube etc is talking about that kiss like it's something incredibly exotic, out of the ordinary, ridiculous even...well it's not from my euro POV. Is there some cultural barrier I fail to see? Are the puritans in total control of your media or what? I'm a bit perplexed...

Anonymous Anonymous said...
Just wondering, why is Statbuster always so pessimistic in regards to the potential of these players? I understand that not every pick will pan out, but certainly there are players who will live up and/or exceed expectations.

Blogger LotharBot said...
I don't think anyone is on about the Vesely kiss for the kiss itself. Just kind of intrigued by the girl. Most of the guys drafted, when they went to hug their moms or kiss their girls, had to bend. Vesely was standing straight up and the girl was right there with him. And he's a tall dude.

It turns out she's like 6'3" tall and played a little bit with the Czech national team...

Anonymous Anonymous said...
1. There are lots of Mormons in California, although they are only about 2% of 38 million residents of the state.
2. Jersey sales of the Jimmer are not limited geographically to the greater Sactown metro area. Mormons living elsewhere can buy the Sacto Jimmer jersey with relative ease, assuming they can stomach wearing a Kings jersey.
3. They'll sell even more jerseys in 2012 when the Kings move to Anaheim.

I'm guessing this will have an effect somewhat like Yao with chinese jersey sales.

Blogger Caleb Smith said...
@sixtyeight - it's just not something you usually see on draft night, but still - I've been perplexed by the reaction as well. A guy kissed his girlfriend. Okay.

Anonymous Anonymous said...
Utah will be very pleased if Kanter turns out to be similar to Divac.

Anonymous broken_teacup said...
@sixtyeight

She was really hot.

The end.

Blogger AnacondaHL said...
To run the shit into the ground, here's interviews of Jan and gf on that night, complete with the interviewers creeping on her.

Anonymous Drew said...
Guys, I think you're missing the forest for the trees: the Maloofs are moving the Kings to....Provo UT!

Blogger Henchman #2 said...
I am consistently baffled by everyone ignoring Jimmer's manifest destiny: rich man's Eddie House (as in, the one the Celtics thought they were getting before they realized Eddie couldn't actually handle the ball).

Anonymous nba jerseys said...
Jimmer at 12 to Utah was a no-brainer of a pick. Sacramento trading down and taking on worse contracts for him was bizarre. Trading down for him and getting some other good assets, sure, but trading down and taking worse assets? I can't explain it.

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